Is the Syrian conflict leading up to a regional conflict?

After Syria shot down a Turkish reconnaissance plane without prior warning, Turkey and Syria are at loggerheads which may well give the current Syrian conflict a regional shape that does not bode well for the region

On Friday, June 22, a Turkish reconnaissance plane, Phantom F-4 was shot down by the Syrian air defence. Prior to shooting it down, the Syrian air defence gave no warning and ignored all international protocols. The F-4 was unarmed and at that time, above
the Mediterranean, on the edge of the Syrian airspace.

Following the incident, Turkey has demanded a NATO meeting to be held on 26^th.

The hyper responsiveness of Syrian defences could have serious repercussions on the region especially after a Syrian MiG-21 reached Jordan to seek political asylum. The Syrian military is not used to taking initiatives and there air defence has always responded
with great restraint in general.

Whenever the Syrian airspace was intruded during the past decade by Israeli jets, Syria never really showed clear signs of retaliation. Between 2001 and 2012, many Israeli jets flew over Syria largely to intimidate the Syrians. In June 2006, an Israeli plane
hovered above the presidential palace in Qardaha. However, the incident was more or less ignored.

However, it now appears that this restraint to retaliate does not imply the same consequences for everyone. Spokesman of the Syrian Foreign Ministry, Maqdisi Jihad on June 25 said that crossing the borders without notice is disrespectful to the “sacredness
of the territory and of waters and airspace of Syria.”

The Syrian actions thus appear to be a deliberate act to test Turkey’s resolve, to create difficulties and to send a message.

Syria and Turkey had been going along well before the current Syrian conflict erupted last year. Even now, Turkish Prime Minister, Erdogan Tayyep asked Syria to apologise for their actions. However, Turkey has already requested a NATO meeting.

NATO and EU ministers have asked Turkey to show restraint as any action could further escalate an already grave crisis. However, Erdogan now says that Turkey’s rules of engagement have changed and any further provocation of the Syrian army towards the Turkish
border will be considered as a threat and treated as a military target.

Turkey will not allow Syrian forces near its borders which means that the Syrian rebels will have free movement who are gathering to advance towards the heart of Syria.

Turkey has been a haven to more than 30,000 refugees fleeing the atrocities of the Syrian army and has also helped people escape punishment that Damascus wants to inflict on those who have rebelled against Bashar Al-Assad’s regime.

Every day, many people cross the Syrian border to seek refuge in Turkey. However, this now leaves Turkey having CIA agents on its territory and other Western intelligence services that are working to get an insight on weapons Syrian regime is using against
the resistance fighters.

The recent aerial incident also sends a clear signal to the west that Syria has an efficient air-defence system. Safe to say, the shooting down of the Turkish jet was a skilfully played move.

However, skilful a ploy it maybe, shooting down an F4 that was commissioned in 1960 does not prove the might of the Syrian air defence. The same models were brought down time and time again by the Vietnamese forces a few decades.

So far, Ankara has been careful and mature in its handling of the regional consequences of the Syrian conflict. Despite seeing its F4 being shot down, Turkey has not shown any signs of starting a military operation in Syria.

The case is far from settle, at least militarily. Rather than trying to punish Syria, Turkey will continue to open its borders for people the Syrian regime calls insurgents. It may also adopt economic sanctions on Syria. The regional power status prompts
Turkey to promote a solution to the crisis.

As the conflict enters its 16^th month, the Syrian regime could take the conflict beyond its borders, not only in Lebanon where tempers are flaring, but also in Turkey.

All it could take is just one spark that will ignite a raging fire between Damascus and Ankara. Two of the region’s most heavily armed neighbours could inch closer towards a conflict that will take a regional shape if it happens.

Syria is also flexing its muscles and seems to be in a bullish mood. Though Turkey has not given any clear signals of its intentions, it is hard to see Turkey show the same restrain it did a few days back if Syria tests its resolve again.

Once, the two countries were close allies. Now, the situation has changed dramatically and feeling is that Turkey will be the game-changer in this issue.

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Posted by Taimoor Tariq on Jun 27 2012. Filed under Middle East. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry