“The illusion of peace and prosperity in Europe is evident”, says Friedman

Neither good nor bad. Moral descriptions do little to understand what happens in Ukraine, where the clash between Russia and Europe and the United States has risen some language and practices of the Cold War.

“Every country does what it needs to do,” says George Friedman, president of the prospective company Stratfor and one of those responsible for that geopolitics has returned to center stage in the United States.” Vladimir Putin and Ukraine should stabilize mattress area. The Germans must protect its natural gas imports. U.S. can not get involved militarily in Ukraine without allies. Not that anyone, Angela Merkel or Barack Obama or Vladimir Putin is evil or wonderful. This is geopolitics. And it’s something that remains, “he adds.

The realist school sees international relations as a struggle between national interests, rather than between ideals. Friedman, formed in German philosophy and author of essays as The next hundred years may sound cynical and provocative. But it is a traditional conservative, wedded to the realpolitik that interprets the world in key geographical and historical constant.

Ukraine, Friedman said during a phone conversation, is primarily a European crisis: targeting the U.S. or Russia shifts focus. In his opinion, is the institutional, military and economic weakness in Europe, coupled with attempts to lure Ukraine into the EU institutions, which has led emboldened Russia and President Putin.

” The real crisis, which I call the metacrisis, crisis line, is that this is a test for Europe,” explains Friedman, born in 1949 in Hungary and settled in Austin , away from the hustle of laboratories ideas and Congress in Washington.” Europe said it would be an entity of peace and prosperity. Well, Europe has lost prosperity in his country and others. And they promised peace is subject to challenge. Europe is the illusion of being in evidence. “

Stratfor, Friedman company, sometimes defined as a shadow CIA. Their reports have some intelligence reports of the secret services. This reputation has damaged them. In 2012, the organization Wikileaks released hundreds of thousands of emails from Stratfor, largely limited informative value.

Friedman reviews are uncomfortable, sometimes puzzling. Some take little seriously their predictions about what will happen in the world in ten, fifty, a hundred years. It is relentless with Europeans. Also in Washington away from those who demonize Putin. Like other conservatives of the realist school, comprising the Russian President, accused the Obama administration of fomenting instability in Ukraine and cause secession of Ukrainian region of Crimea.

“The Russians have an opportunity to increase their power and influence,” he notes. ” The mattress states of Europe, which are Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic states, are crucial for them. If you enter Belarus and Ukraine into NATO, Smolensk, in the center of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire, it is a border town. “

“Putin had to do these movements,” says referring to actions to prevent Ukraine closer to Western Europe. “Any Russian leader would have done.”

Obama also, to promote coordinated sanctions with European partners, continues the tradition of other American presidents. “The United States fought in three wars [ both global and cold ] to ensure that no power conquered the peninsula in Western Europe,” she recalls. “The question of Russian power against Europeans is critical to the U.S. national interest: if the Russians dominasen Western Europe, which I do not think it will happen, this would damage the balance of power.”

He continues: “But as the U.S. discovered in previous wars, the Europeans do not want to take the same risks as the Americans. Obama gives American classic response to the rise of a Eurasian hegemon but, as in other periods not find European partners. ” The idea that the Russian intervention in Ukraine is a result of the weakness of Obama- a common accusation in conservative circles in Washington makes little sense, according to Friedman. Putin says not thinking about the possible U.S. reaction when he intervened in Ukraine: thinking about the reaction of Germany, the more prone to exercise Bridge in the West and Russia to stand up to this country European power.

“It is the weakness of the U.S. is at stake. We meet on the other side of the world from Ukraine. And, militarily and politically difficult for us to project our power in Ukraine, unless we have allies that work. “

It will be difficult for the U.S. to move against Russia without allies: the problem is that these are divided; believe they “can live with” the current instability. “Countries like Spain,” he says, ” treat it as if it happened on the other side of the Moon.”

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Posted by Khalil Khan on May 12 2014. Filed under World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.